Netflix is due to report second-quarter results after the close of trading Thursday, with Wall Street eagerly anticipating a strong kickoff to media earnings season from the giant streamer.“Currently, we see no scaled global streaming competitor,” said Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein in a recent note to clients, with an “outperform” rating and a higher stock price target of $1,425. “Outlook remains ironclad.”Helfstein and other analysts cite positives like viewership gains, a well-positioned ad tier, price hikes in key markets, and a strong programming slate in the second half of the year and beyond driven by hefty and sustained content spending. Netflix, Helfstein believes, can monetize content more effectively than peers.“Netflix has established a virtually insurmountable lead in the streaming wars,” echoed Alicia Reese of Wedbush Securities.The Street and the broader industry is gradually adjusting to a major change. The company co-led by Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters stopped reporting quarterly subscriber numbers this year. shifting attention to broader financial performance and strategic outlook. “Investors looking to get constructive on Netflix out of earnings” need to focus elsewhere, Reese said.So, with renewed attention, the Street is looking for Q2 revenue in the range of $11.04 billion, a hair above the company’s guidance of $11.035 billion, she wrote in a client note, adding that “expectations are rather high given various positive data points throughout the quarter.”The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $7.06. Investors will also look for higher full-year 2025 forecasts, which would likely send Netflix shares higher. In April, the streaming giant reported strong results for the first quarter, with revenue and earnings per share beating Street views.Consensus numbers can vary slightly. Bloomberg pegs it at $11.06 billion in revenue with EPS of $7.09.Beyond Netflix, Comcast’s Q2 numbers are coming later in July. Tech titans, Warner Bros. Discovery, Disney and the rest will follow, with potentially lots to talk about on and off earnings calls. The media business is at a major inflection point with more moving pieces than it’s seen in years. NBCUniversal is spinning out its cable networks, Warner Bros. Discovery splitting in half and Lionsgate and Starz are already stand-alones after separating in May. Deals of some sort are anticipated ultimately for any and all of them in a consolidating industry. Skydance and Paramount Global are hoping to announce their merger, an agreement struck more than a year ago, which will be a major shift in the ecosystem.Netflix shares come into earnings on a tear, having risen 41% in 2025 to date after a banner 2024. They began Thursday’s trading day at $1,253, down a bit from their all-time high of $1,341.15 established in June.Several analysts have upped their price targets in recent days. Among them is Michael Morris of Guggenheim, who boosted his 12-month outlook to $1,400 from $1,150. He believes the company has “something to prove” as it contends with investor skepticism about its early-stage advertising business and programming strategy and budget.“Management’s outlook for the robust content slate [in the second half of the year], expanded live content partnerships (led by a recently announced partnership with TF1 in France, and advertiser demand will be keys to supporting investor confidence in the incremental long-term global growth potential of the business,” Morris wrote in a recent note to clients. “We maintain our confidence in sustained value creation driven by industry-leading content sourcing and distribution, which we expect will yield broader revenue potential (inclusive of both pricing and potential partnerships) and margin expansion.”Sarandos, Peters & Co. adopted a conservative stance last quarter by keeping their profit guidance steady amid tariff uncertainties, navigating a challenging period for advertising markets and consumer sentiment. Since then, the ad market has improved overall, with more dollars shifting toward CTV, while consumer spending has remained resilient. Additionally, favorable foreign currency translation effects are expected to bolster margin performance.Netflix and other companies may well remain conservative, however. Tariff jitters continue with President Donald Trump again threatening steep import taxes on most of the world including major U.S. trading partners like Canada and the European Union, if deals are not struck by a new deadline of August 1.The tariff-driven inflation that economists and markets have feared finally showed up earlier this week as consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier driven by higher prices on goods from gasoline and food to toys, appliances and shoes. Prices rose 0.3% from May to June. Inflation had accelerated from a 2.4% annual increase and 1% monthly in May.Even ahead of August 1, tariffs are higher already almost across the board including on goods from major exporter China from a universal tariff of 10% Trump imposed ahead of August 1. He’s threatened tariffs that are considerably higher – up to 35% on Canada, 30% on Europe and Mexico, 25% on Japan and South Korea and a whopping 50% on Brazil. Inflation means the U.S. Federal Reserve may be slower in lowering interest rates, despite threats by the President to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell.
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